You are Expendable to Trump

    Donald Trump and Republicans want to prematurely reopen the country during the COVID-19 pandemic while no cure [1,2,3] or vaccine yet exists for the disease. Thus far, the virus has infected over 2.2 million worldwide, and 0.7 million in the United States. Worldwide mortality is 6.5%, the U.S. is almost 4.5%. Mortality ranges from slightly under 1% to as high as 13% depending on the capacity and effectiveness of the medical facilities in the affected country, state, or locality.

    Before physical distancing measures are relaxed, at least three measures must be in place to avoid a resurgence of COVID-19. First, expansive and rapid testing to identify and quarantine people who are infected and contagious. Second, once an infected person is identified, all contacts with that person must be found and tested, quarantined if infected, and their contacts located and tested. Third, abundant personal protective equipment must be available, not only for medial personnel, but for anyone who may be in an position of potential infection. Sadly, because of Trump's denial of the severity of the pandemic, and his delayed and inadequate response to it despite multiple warnings [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ,6 ,7], the three essential items above are severely lacking.

    How many lives are Trump and Republicans willing to sacrifice to enhance their electoral chances? Models show that COVID-19, if inadequately checked, could infect 1/3 of the U.S. population, or 110 million people. Depending on how many are infected concurrently, mortality would vary depending on the treatment facilities and medical personnel available. Worst case, 14 million dead; probable case based on the current U.S. mortality, 4.8 million; and best case based on the lowest mortality, almost 1 million. Estimates of deaths in the U.S. during the 1918 pandemic were 0.65 million. Do you trust Trump and his enablers with your life and the lives of your loved ones?

John L. Ferri
jlferri@epix.net

References:

1. The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead - NY Times