Coronavirus Actual & Predicted Cases

Updated on February 4, 2021 (No longer being updated.)

The table below shows the actual number of coronavirus cases as reported at Worldometers in various countries along with the predicted number of future cases based on the daily growth factor for that country averaged over the previous 7 days. The daily growth factor is the number of reported cases on any given day divided by the number of cases on the previous day. Note that the method used is not intended to model the virus, but to show short term trends based on recent behavior.

 Actual number of cases will be in bold. Note that had Trump not disbanded the U.S. Pandemic Response Team during his 1st year in office, this pandemic may have never left China. (1) (2)

The table below shows the 7 day moving average for "Days-to-Double," the number of days it takes to double the number of virus cases. A smaller number is worse:

The graph below compares the doubling times of coronavirus cases for the World, United States, U.K., Brazil, India, Italy, & Russia. Lower doubling times are worse. 

The graph below shows the 7 day moving average for daily covid-19 deaths as compared to reported cases.

John L. Ferri

jlferri@epix.net