Herd Immunity is Mass Murder

During an interview with a WENY reporter, Bradford County (PA) commissioner Doug McLinko said the recent spike of covid-19 cases in the county is taking its "natural course" and that we shouldn't "live in fear", but to not "put yourself in harm's way." He also said that he would not take part in any discussions to shut down the county and, "we just have to be vigilant and tough and get through it."

McLinko has adopted the herd immunity plan of Donald Trump and his non-epidemiologist medical advisor Dr. Scott Atlas. The plan is to allow the virus to spread among younger and healthier people who have a higher chance of survival until enough people have developed immunity (the herd level) to stop the spread of further infection.

There are several problems: First, immunity after an infection hasn't yet been proven. Second, it will be next to impossible to protect vulnerable people if ten of thousands in the county are infected. And third, even younger and healthier people die from the virus. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nations top infectious disease expert, called Trump's herd immunity plan "total nonsense."

The population of Bradford County is approximately 63,000. There is no absolute percentage of infection for herd immunity but 70% seems to be a generally agreed upon figure, thus 44,100 need to be infected while not infecting the vulnerable population. The latest 7 day moving average for mortality-to-case rate in the U.S. is 1.27%. Thus 560 of the 44,100 would die. Cutting this in half to allow for a lower mortality-to-infection rate would still kill 280 people.

Who would be among the 280? Careless people? People whose job requires them to be in harm's way? People who were vulnerable but were somehow infected anyway? As the experts concluded, the plan is total nonsense.

John L. Ferri
jlferri@epix.net